Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro is facing “unprecedented military and diplomatic pressure” from the United States, which is demanding his resignation and peaceful departure from the country, The Wall Street Journal reports. However, the 63-year-old politician is unlikely to accept the offer, the newspaper notes. WSJ writes that the days when dictators could live in luxurious exile with fortunes tucked away in secret Swiss accounts are largely over — mostly because of global mechanisms for prosecuting human rights violations and tracking illicit assets.
Maduro and most of his allies believe that U.S. military threats are a bluff, according to a person who frequently speaks with senior Venezuelan officials. He said Maduro is convinced that the only way the U.S. could overthrow him is by sending troops into Caracas. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is willing to talk with the Venezuelan leader. At the same time, analysts interviewed by WSJ consider a U.S. ground invasion unlikely. From Maduro’s perspective, remaining in Venezuela may be the safest way to protect himself, his money, and his family.
The Trump administration recently designated the “Cartel of the Suns” — which the U.S. claims is led by Maduro — as a terrorist organization. An indictment dating back to Trump’s first term alleged that Maduro participated in a narco-terrorist conspiracy aimed at “flooding the United States with cocaine.” Trump authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela and ordered the largest military buildup in the Caribbean region in decades. The U.S. has offered a $50 million reward for Maduro.
WSJ writes that the first problem facing Maduro and his allies is criminal liability. The president and his top officials are accused in the United States of cocaine trafficking and supplying weapons to Colombian guerrillas. Since 2018, the International Criminal Court in The Hague has been investigating cases against Venezuela for crimes against humanity.
Maduro has also made a military coup unlikely. Former Venezuelan officers told the newspaper that military personnel who might try to overthrow him are deterred by their own involvement in corruption and by fear of punishment — torture, imprisonment, and even death. Venezuela’s armed forces are filled with experienced Cuban counterintelligence officers, making coup plots nearly impossible.
Another problem is that Maduro has few options for seeking asylum beyond Russia or Cuba. The article notes that safety in exile in a European capital such as Madrid would be a serious concern — tens of thousands of Venezuelan exiles live there, many of whom despise him. In addition, Maduro’s military leadership deeply distrusts the opposition led by María Corina Machado, who has vowed to hold the “criminal regime” accountable and reform the country’s armed forces.
