Turkey’s new energy strategy threatens the export positions of Russia and Iran: by 2028, Ankara aims to cover more than half of its natural gas needs through domestic production and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), primarily from the United States. Reuters reports this, citing calculations and data from existing contracts. Washington has been urging its allies to reduce energy dependence on Moscow and Tehran, and at the end of September, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded during a White House meeting that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cut purchases of Russian gas.
Russia’s share of the Turkish gas market has already dropped from over 60% to 37% over the past two decades. In the coming years, long-term contracts with Russia for 22 billion cubic meters per year via the Blue Stream and TurkStreampipelines will expire, as will Turkey’s contract with Iran for 10 billion cubic meters. Ankara is ready to renew some of these agreements, but only for smaller volumes and under more flexible terms.
At the same time, Turkey is rapidly expanding alternative sources. The state energy company TPAO is boosting domestic production, while the country’s LNG terminals can now handle imports of up to 58 billion cubic meters annually — nearly the entire domestic demand. In September, BOTAŞ signed a 20-year deal with the U.S. company Mercuria as part of a broader $43 billion package of agreements.
According to analysts’ estimates, Ankara will be able to use Russian and Iranian gas for domestic consumption, while exporting U.S. LNG and part of its own production to Europe. BOTAŞ has already signed its first supply contracts with Hungary and Romania, strengthening Turkey’s ambitions to become a regional gas hub.
