One year and one hundred and thirty-seven days of war have passed. There are no ISW maps, and the publics are not writing anything substantial about the situation on the front today. Therefore, let’s go straight to the NATO summit in Vilnius.
Today the entire Ukrainian (and not only Ukrainian) sector of the Internet is full of curses against Western leaders for their cowardice, fear of Putin, half-heartedness, etc. Cowards, lowlifes, not like our Zelensky…
They should have either accepted Ukraine into NATO immediately, or said clearly when it would be accepted. And it is desirable that it should be a short period of time, not decades. Then it would have been a different matter! But as it is – ugh, you pathetic, insignificant people! You sucked Putin’s dick, and now you have no excuse!
Everything is clear, your position is clear… Concretely. To the point. But I have a question: what would have happened if Zelensky had fulfilled the Minsk agreements? There, as I remember, it was necessary to grant autonomy to Donbass within Ukraine, to hold elections and to amnesty separatist leaders. And then control over the border with Russia was transferred to Ukrainian border guards.
But Zelensky refused to do this because he knew he would be swept away. The people who elected him didn’t want that. They did not want to federalize Ukraine, did not want to amnesty the bandits, did not want to implement the Minsk agreements. The people of Ukraine generally considered them a betrayal of the country (which is also why Poroshenko lost the election). And those who helped achieve them (Merkel, Hollande, Steinmeier) were Putin’s bedfellows and enemies. Let’s leave aside the question of how fair this is. It is enough that the people thought so.
That is, Zelensky, as the democratically elected leader of the country, did what the people demanded of him: he refused to implement the Minsk agreements. And this is normal. It would be abnormal if he had fulfilled them against the will of the people. Right? I’m not confused? Well, thank God.
Now pay attention! I will not speak for the whole West, I will only speak about Germany. 80% of Germans are against the immediate admission of Ukraine to NATO. At the same time, 57% of Germans are in favor of Germany helping Ukraine with money and weapons. And a little more than half of Germans are in favor of admitting Ukraine to NATO after its war with Russia is over.
What conclusion should a democratically elected leader draw from this? Vote against Ukraine’s immediate membership in NATO, continue to give Ukraine money and arms and agree to admit it to NATO, but only after the war is over. But since no one can clearly say when the war will end, it is impossible to give a specific timeframe for Ukraine’s admission to NATO.
That’s exactly what Scholz did. And I’m sure other Western leaders have done the same. That is, those leaders whose people support the immediate accession of Ukraine to NATO, voted for it (for example, the same Lithuania), and those whose people are against it, voted against it. And this is normal. It is not normal to resent it.
What do we have in the end? The situation is very clear: the West does not want to participate directly in this war. Let’s be clear: the immediate admission of Ukraine to NATO, by virtue of the fifth article of the treaty, is a de facto declaration of war by NATO against Russia. With all the consequences that this entails. At most – nuclear escalation, at least – losses of its soldiers and (possibly) civilians as a result of missile attacks.
But the West does not want these consequences. And this is not the whim of cowardly leaders, but the position of the people. The people do not want to participate in this war. They are ready to help the victim of aggression, but they do not want to fight themselves.
Note: this distinguishes the West from Ukraine. During the Russian aggression against Georgia, Ukrainians for the most part not only did not want to participate in this war on the side of Georgia, but did not even demand from their government to help it with weapons. And when Yushchenko arbitrarily sold(!) two Buk SAMs to Saakashvili, the Verkhovna Rada launched an investigation into this “incident”.
And during the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova, Ukraine allowed Russia to supply weapons and other goods to the separatists via its railroads, and the Russian army to protect them.
In other words, it actually played the same role in this episode that Belarus is playing now.
So, we need to be realistic. And recognize that demanding the West to enter the war is utopian. It is just as senseless to demand from the West to name clear terms for Ukraine’s admission to NATO. For the simple reason that these terms directly depend on the end of the war, and it is impossible to say when it will end.
Zelensky’s position is simple and clear: Ukraine will be ready to end the war when it reaches the borders of 1991. But this is not an answer to the question, when will it happen? And even more so, it is not a guarantee of the end of the war, because in order for the war to end when the AFU reaches the 1991 borders, Russia must also agree to end the war at that moment. And there have been no encouraging signals in this regard…
That is, moving the front line to the 1991 border is not a guarantee of the end of the war. Only complete economic exhaustion of Russia and the resulting impossibility to continue the war can be a guarantee of the end of the war. However, only a lazy person has not written about this.
So what happened today in Vilnius? What catastrophe? Who sucked Putin’s dick again? Where did this idea that Ukraine should have been admitted to NATO in Vilnius come from? Didn’t the Ukrainians themselves convince themselves that it was bound to happen?
In my opinion, a brilliant result has been obtained: NATO has pledged to admit Ukraine without MAP, members of the alliance are ready to provide security guarantees before Ukraine joins NATO and, most importantly, to continue helping Ukraine with arms and money.
This was the maximum that could be counted on. Therefore, no one left anyone behind. Ukraine’s allies remained on the same positions as before.
And our cause is right, the enemy will be defeated, and victory will be ours.
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦