Plans by the United States and Europe to protect Ukraine from a possible future Russian attack include strengthening Ukraine’s Armed Forces, deploying European troops in Ukraine to respond to aggression, and making more active use of U.S. intelligence, The New York Times reported on December 16, citing sources familiar with drafts of two documents (as summarized by the UNIAN Telegram channel).
Key points from the report:
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The first document sets out general principles, amounting to a commitment similar to a NATO Article 5 guarantee.
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The second document contains more detailed provisions, explaining how U.S. and European forces would cooperate with the Ukrainian military to prevent Russia from launching another attack on Ukraine.
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Neither document has been made public. According to sources, the second document includes numerous specific directives designed to “reassure” Ukraine under various scenarios of a potential Russian attack.
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A top priority is increasing the size of Ukraine’s Armed Forces to 800,000 personnel in peacetime, with modern training and equipment. In the event of war, the force would expand to nearly 900,000 troops.
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Building such forces would require “sustained and substantial support” for Ukraine. According to a European diplomat, the document lists “very specific” details of the military equipment Ukraine would need.
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The document also outlines details of European-led military forces that would assist Ukraine by operating inside the country to ensure security in the air and at sea.
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Officials did not disclose which countries would deploy troops to Ukraine, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that several countries have already made private commitments. These forces are expected to be based in western Ukraine, far from the ceasefire line.
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The document also describes in detail how the United States would help detect Russian attempts to organize false-flag operations that could provide Moscow with a pretext to resume hostilities.
The Economist noted (as summarized by UNIAN) that the security guarantees for Ukraine currently under discussion with the United States appear “second-rate” and remain far from full NATO membership. Following meetings on December 14–15 in Berlin, the sides announced a package of measures similar to NATO’s Article 5. However, The Economist points out that the details of this arrangement remain vague—without U.S. troops on the ground, dependent on a European “coalition of the willing” capable of sustaining an 800,000-strong army, and leaving the territorial issue unresolved—despite statements that 90% of the issues have been agreed.
