Alfred KOCH: “Maybe Biden was deliberately dragging his feet to make sure he’d win in time for the elections?”

Two years and 38 days of war have passed. The front line has not changed much over the past 24 hours. There is some (as ISW writes, insignificant) advancement of the Russians in the Avdiivka direction, near the village of Tonenke. But there is also an advance by the AFU in the area of Kreminna. On the whole, ISW assesses all these changes as insignificant.

Speaking of the Avdiivka direction. On Saturday, the Russians undertook there the largest tank attack in a long time with the forces of an entire tank battalion. 36 tanks in company with an unspecified number of BMPs tried to break through the AFU positions. But nothing came out of this idea. Having left 12 tanks on the battlefield, the Russians were forced to return to where they had started the attack.

In general, we can say that fighting is taking place along the entire front line – from Krynky to Kupyansk. But there is still no result. The Russians are stalling and are unable to achieve any significant success anywhere.

ISW emphasizes that the Russians are trying to take advantage of the moment when American aid to the AFU has actually stopped, but even in this weakened version the AFU is still beyond their reach. What will happen when and if American aid is still allocated?

I still believe that European aid will be enough to hold the front line. And that’s already a lot. But if American aid is added to it, the initiative in the war will again go to the AFU. In any case, there are chances for this, and they are high.

Judge for yourself: now there is a relative balance on the front. If American aid comes to the AFU, the Russians will have nothing to respond to this strengthening of the enemy. Unless there is a new mobilization… But this is still a long way off, and even if Putin decides to do it, it will be a long process and the new mobilized will not appear on the front until mid-summer.

If they are immediately thrown into the meat grinder, they will be of little use. Suffice it to recall the fall of 2022. Even then, after Putin’s mobilization, the Russians still had to leave Kherson and the entire right bank of the Dnipro. Surovikin called it a “difficult decision”. There is no doubt that such “difficult decisions” will not be avoided this time either.

As for American aid, there are grounds for cautious optimism. Johnson said that the House of Representatives would take up the issue of aid to Ukraine (and Israel and Taiwan, as I understand it) right after the recess. He again insisted that it would be a new bill (providing for loan aid to Ukraine), not the one already voted on in the Senate. But so be it. After all, Johnson has to explain his donkey stubbornness somehow.

So strange… In the US, Republicans are elephants and Democrats are donkeys. And now the Republicans have their own donkey… Well, things happen in life. But all kidding aside, vacation ends on April 8th. Congressmen will be on the job on the 9th. If things move quickly, it’s possible that aid will be appropriated by mid-April.

Let’s dream. If Biden doesn’t start fooling around again and this time does allocate as many weapons as really needed and the kind of weapons needed (e.g., Patriot, ATACMS, lots of 155mm shells, etc.), it could dramatically change the course of the war.

And if by that time Ukraine also accelerates mobilization (to be fair, it should be said that now it is somehow going on, though under the old law), it is quite possible that by early autumn the war will be over. And not at all in the way Putin planned to end it. To put it mildly.

Fuck knows, maybe that was Biden’s plan? Maybe he’s such a damn cynic that he was dragging his feet on purpose to make sure he’d win in time for the election? That’s not so stupid, is it? Okay, okay, I’m just dreaming… But why not? Sometimes it’s possible.

Let’s face it, we’ve all missed the good news.

Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

The Israeli government shut down Al-Jazeera, approved a plan for an offensive on Rafah (which provides for the preliminary evacuation of civilians), and the IDF destroyed the Iranian consulate during an attack on Damascus. Iran has promised a tough response. We will soon see what this means.

Meanwhile, a large anti-government demonstration took place in Jerusalem. Its participants, including relatives and friends of the hostages, demanded that Netanyahu not attack Rafah, but rather make a deal with Hamas and secure the release of the hostages. That’s how it’s going…


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