One year and two hundred and forty-six days of war have passed. ISW maps today are virtually no different from those of yesterday. Although this does not mean, of course, that some calm has settled on the front. No, there is intense positional fighting (especially in the Avdiivka area), but neither side can achieve any notable success, despite their best efforts.
The new House Speaker, Republican Mike Johnson, said in an interview with Fox News that U.S. aid to Ukraine and Israel would be passed in two separate bills, not one as the White House had proposed.
Specifically, he said that “we’re going to consider a separate bill to fund Israel, it’s a necessary and urgent need… There are many things going on in the world that we have to respond to, and we will, but right now what’s happening in Israel needs immediate attention… I believe this will be supported by both parties, and I’m going to push for it very much”.
What all this is fraught with, I think, does not need to be explained. I don’t know if we can already say that the topic of the war between Ukraine and Russia has left the sphere of America’s interests and has been pushed somewhere far away. Probably, everything is not so hopeless and this topic can still be “reanimated”. But it will not happen by itself. Especially against the background of events in the Middle East. “Reanimation” must be dealt with.
I don’t know whether the Ukrainian leaders in Kyiv (on Bankova St.) understand this and whether they realize that no one but them will do it, but, in my opinion, this is obviously their task. Theirs, and no one else’s.
Arestovych, when he was still playing for Zelenskyy’s team, misled Ukrainian society with his motivational sessions about the role Ukraine plays in the world and how the West perceives its relationship with it.
The leitmotif of Ukrainian propaganda was and is the thesis that Ukraine is protecting the West from Putin’s hordes and therefore the West should(!) help it if it does not want to fight Putin itself. As soon as Ukraine loses, Russian barbarians will immediately invade peaceful and cowardly Europe and conquer it in no time. The West understands this and therefore will give us anything we want, as long as we continue to protect it from Putin. Ukraine is a “security donor” and the main military force in Europe.
I will not argue with these theses. Perhaps it is so and Ukrainians perceive the situation correctly. But the West does not see it that way. And I have written many times in my diary that if Ukraine wants the West to look at this war through its eyes, it must convince the West of its rightness.
Recently, in an interview with a Ukrainian journalist, I started to say that the West’s help consists not only in military supplies, but also in the large amount of money it gives Ukraine so that its state as a bureaucratic machine does not collapse.
To which she interrupted me and said that this is the way it should be, because the West is obliged to give Ukraine money by virtue of its allied obligations. To be honest, I was even a little taken aback by this turn in the conversation, since the West has no allied relations with Ukraine and, therefore, no obligations.
Only now only discussion(!) of security guarantees for Ukraine from the West has begun, which will become the prototype of future allied relations.
But Ukrainian society has a different attitude! A month ago, a young Odessian assured me that since Nuland handed out “cookies” during Maidan 2014, she pledged on behalf of the United States of America to take Ukraine under her wing and protect it with all her aircraft carriers and bombers.
The story of the Budapest Memorandum is repeating itself: Ukrainians believe their propagandists and they mislead them about the presence/absence of any obligations to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the truth is that Ukraine was a victim of Putin’s aggression in a position where it has no(!) alliance treaty with anyone and is not a member of any military alliance. (Besides, Putin did not attack Ukraine before it had actually sold off all its weapons and collapsed its military-industrial complex).
Under such circumstances, the West perceives its aid to Ukraine as pure, unadulterated charity, the form, content, and timing of which it is free to determine as it sees fit, up to the point where it can stop it altogether at any time.
As for the fact that the West is terribly afraid of Putin’s attack and is very happy that Ukraine protects it from this aggression, I think that Finland’s admission to NATO has finally disproved this thesis.
After all, if the West was so afraid of Putin, it would not have gone to the trouble to “move NATO to the East” once again, reduce the “flight time” and what else is there in the propaganda arsenal that the West is “afraid” of?
And in the case of Finland, Ukraine could not come to the aid of the cowardly West. It would have to take the entire blow of Putin’s aggression upon itself. So, in this case, it either did not see a great risk for itself or was ready for it.
I don’t see this as a big catastrophe for Ukraine. At least for the moment. But if this dramatic gap in the understanding of mutual relations between Ukraine and the West continues to worsen, it could end badly for Ukraine. Ukraine must look at itself through the eyes of the West and understand what the West wants from it.
Dear Ukrainians! You will not force the West to play by your rules. It is utopia. Either you will play by its rules, or the West will lose interest in you. So NATO’s border with Russia will run along the Polish border. No big deal. Nowadays it runs along the borders of Finland, Estonia and Latvia. And it’s fine. No major complications.
The West says: fight corruption. Yes, of course, by all means… But there is still nothing. A year and a half of promises and oaths. And the result is no reform of the law enforcement system. But they promised, swore, spelled out everything step by step…
The West says: do not disperse your forces. Why do you need to attack Bakhmut? Concentrate on the south. Silence. They are quietly bending their line. Spreading their forces. As a result, they don’t attack there or there. But still: shovel face and no conclusions. Only endless cries: give tanks, give missiles, give airplanes!
The West says: produce at least mortars and shells yourself. Yes, of course, here we are now, immediately, right away. And for a year and a half now – practically zero.
And then – the same thing: with conscription, with replenishment, with desertion… They do not recognize any problems, they are not going to change anything, they are right all around. And only: give, give, give.
And Zelenskyy came to New York to speak at the UNGA and present the “Zelenskyy’s Plan” – a program of global reorganization of the world and a “solemn set” to solve all the problems of mankind, from local wars to ecology.
Let me guess: this is the same guy who walked around with his hand outstretched, who has a quarter of his population as refugees, 50% of his budget covered by Western aid, and a state ranked 122nd on the Corruption Perception Index? Seriously? Can we not listen to him? This is a circus…
And the truth is that by GDP per capita (PPP) Ukraine before the war was at the level of Egypt, Tunisia and Sri Lanka. Two times(!) lower than the poorest European country – Bulgaria. And by the number of only official(!) billionaires it was ahead of all these countries combined. Is it clear now why a thug like Putin could not pass by without trying to take you over?
There are no words: Putin is a monstrous criminal. Ukrainian soldiers are outstanding heroes fighting for their country. But please, more adequacy, be reasonable. Listen to those who want to do you good. And who volunteer to help you in your time of need. Don’t trust yourself too much. You’ve had thirty years to build a great country. The starting conditions were no worse than in neighboring Poland. You were the most industrialized republic of the USSR. And now where is Poland and where are you?
“Maybe we should change something in the conservatory”. Maybe you shouldn’t believe so unquestioningly in your unconditional competence in everything, eh? If you are told not to attack Bakhmut – maybe you should listen? How many more soldiers do you have to lose before you finally realize the true scale of the military genius of General Syrskyy (or whoever is behind him)? Was Debaltseve not enough for you?
OK, bygones… There was a Jewish pogrom in Makhachkala. That’s what we had to prove. Jews are bad for them: they offend Muslims. I’ve always been struck by this narrow-minded anger: only at Jews. And when Putin bombed Aleppo in Syria, Makhachkala was silent… And when the Chinese have been exterminating Uighurs for decades, also silence. Or are they not Muslims?
The case was as follows: the FSS passed a command to the mullahs in the mosques, and they began an anti-Semitic sermon. Simple, young Dagestanis, who piously believed in the mullahs, ran to “beat the Jews – to save Russia!
The next step: the trained Berl Lazar will throw himself at Putin’s feet: protect him, my dear sovereign! The latter will give him a stern look, shout and stomp his foot. A dozen shooters will be put in jail. And now a thank-you telegram from Netanyahu is flying… The deal is done, Putin is the defender of the Jews. The reputation that was shaken by support for Hamas is restored. Cheap and dirty.
Dear Jews, don’t fall for this show. Putin is an enemy of Jews and Israel. Putin is the enemy of Ukraine. Putin is the enemy of humanity. He is the main source of evil.
Our cause is just. The enemy will be defeated. Victory will be ours.
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦