Anyone who thinks that Prigozhin has lost Putin’s support or that he was outplayed by some patrushevs, shoigu, or gerasimovs,
can’t understand its “state” structure.
It is quite obvious to me that Putin and Prigozhin are inseparable, that Prigozhin is smarter, more cunning and understands the situation better than the “experts” are trying to portray. And Putin will become stronger if Prigozhin becomes stronger. So everything that has been written and predicted so far, you can throw in the trash.
My opinion: Prigozhin has not been in Belarus since yesterday. He is in St. Petersburg. Yesterday was his wife’s birthday, which he no doubt spent with his family. Of course, the family was under stress, because there were searches and seizures. But everything will be returned to him, he will be apologized to, and all the conditions that were agreed with him will be met. And if that doesn’t happen over a period of time, if it turns out that Putin hasn’t fulfilled the agreements, Prigozhin will remind him. He obviously knows how.
Now it is important for Putin and his entourage to support “state” institutions and power structures in public (for the population and even for an audience abroad). But in fact, the most important thing for him is to maintain the unity of his group, in which Prigozhin plays one of the most important roles. Today, Putin has admitted that the Wagner PMC was financed by the state and spent 86 billion rubles only last year from May 2022 to May 2023. That is, even when the Wagner was recognized in the West as a terrorist organization, Putin organized its funding.
All of this is a reaction of Prigozhin to the fact that he may come out of the situation with Wagner “lowered” or lose the PMC. And this, according to the laws of the mafia, is not better than death.
I am sure that now he is sitting in his office in St. Petersburg, and continues to run his business, including Wagner. And he’s waiting for the execution of the agreements by the watchdog. Belarus is needed in order to formally change the jurisdiction of Wagner and not to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry.
Those who have been building their “expertise” these days continue to assume that Russia has a totalitarian regime, an autocracy or a military junta, or that it is controlled by the FSB.
I repeat: Russia is a territory seized by a mafia group, the roles in which are painted. Moreover, over the past 20 years almost all members of the grouping have become irreplaceable, and their functions can only be handed down by inheritance and if there are successful children or close relatives. Which is already happening.
It is only from this that we should proceed when analyzing what is happening in Russia. Putin and Prigozhin are in this together. Whoever is at the core of the mafia is not susceptible to persecution and punishment. Watch “The Godfather” every day. And think. Critical thinking hasn’t yet been cancelled.